- Analytics
- News and Tools
- Market News
- USD/TRY: CBRT to cap gains below 15.00 while oil prices do not rally aggressively – Credit Suisse
USD/TRY: CBRT to cap gains below 15.00 while oil prices do not rally aggressively – Credit Suisse
Economists at Credit Suisse think a hawkish tilt at Thursday’s the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) meeting is possible. They continue to expect the central bank to cap USD/TRY gains below 15.00 in the very short-run.
A hawkish surprise in the making?
“A policy rate hike, even a seemingly sizable hike of 500bps, will not change the fact that the policy rate in real terms is very far into negative territory. At the same time, a rate hike would, to some extent, create a sense that the central bank’s reaction function has changed. Putting the two together, with this possible but surprising outcome the lira would be likely to rally somewhat but probably not enough to take USD/TRY back to its pre-Russia-invasion levels (i.e. below 14.00) in a sustainable way.”
“While Brent oil prices sits near $100/bbl it seems to us reasonable to expect USD/TRY to stay below but close to the 15.00 mark. But if oil prices rise to, say, $120/bbl again – the central bank will likely see a need to allow USD/TRY to rise to a new (higher) range – perhaps 15.00-16.00.”
© 2000-2024. All rights reserved.
This site is managed by Teletrade D.J. LLC 2351 LLC 2022 (Euro House, Richmond Hill Road, Kingstown, VC0100, St. Vincent and the Grenadines).
The information on this website is for informational purposes only and does not constitute any investment advice.
The company does not serve or provide services to customers who are residents of the US, Canada, Iran, The Democratic People's Republic of Korea, Yemen and FATF blacklisted countries.
Making transactions on financial markets with marginal financial instruments opens up wide possibilities and allows investors who are willing to take risks to earn high profits, carrying a potentially high risk of losses at the same time. Therefore you should responsibly approach the issue of choosing the appropriate investment strategy, taking the available resources into account, before starting trading.
Use of the information: full or partial use of materials from this website must always be referenced to TeleTrade as the source of information. Use of the materials on the Internet must be accompanied by a hyperlink to teletrade.org. Automatic import of materials and information from this website is prohibited.
Please contact our PR department if you have any questions or need assistance at pr@teletrade.global.
Bank transfers
