The most recent flareup of concerns surrounding Russia supplies have once again placed prices on a trajectory toward $100/b. Economists at TD Securities expect Brent Oil to hit this level before trading back lower towards the mid-$80s.
“If there is an invasion and severe sanctions are imposed on Russia, there would likely be additional substantial price spikes, as supplies are tight, demand will accelerate as COVID-19 restrictions are put aside and driving season approaches.”
“If there is confirmed evidence of Russia pulling back troops from the border, we could see prices head toward the mid-$80s.”
“Crude may hit $100/b if the probability of severe sanctions against Russia rises, triggering a downgrade in its production estimates. After that, a selloff is expected which would take Brent into the mid-$80s in the latter part of 2022, as both supply and demand respond to the price shock.”
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