EUR/USD has been in a long-term downtrend since the middle of 2021. For the weeks ahead, there is a bias towards 1.10 and the following illustrates this in a top-down analysis.
The weekly chart has made a significant retracement to test the vicinity of 50% mean reversion. This leaves the focus on the downside in accordance with the dominant bearish trend.
However, there is still an imbalance of price that could yet be mitigated prior to further downside.
Should the bulls break the resistance on the daily chart, then there will be prospects of a continuation to mitigate some of, if not all of, the imbalance of price as illustrated above.
On the other hand, considering the bearish trend, a break of both horizontal and dynamic support would reveal the downside imbalance as follows:
In any case, both areas of imbalance will be filled eventually:
The higher probability is to trade with the trend. In the above scenario, a bearish breakout of the dynamic support opens risk towards 1.10 the figure for the weeks ahead.
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