Market news
25.11.2021, 21:05

AUD/JPY Price Analysis: The break of a bullish flag opens the door for a retest of YTD high around 86.25

  • AUD/JPY slides for the second day in a row, despite risk-on market sentiment.
  • On Thursday, the AUD/JPY remained subdued, without clear direction.

The AUD/JPY falls during the day, down some 0.15%, trading at 82.93 during the day at the time of writing. Despite thin liquidity conditions, the market sentiment remains upbeat as the US Markets remain closed in the observance of Thanksgiving. Major US equity futures indices rise between 0.11% and 0.23%, carrying on with the market mood witnessed in the European session.

On Thursday, during the overnight session, the AUD/JPY pair remained dull, trading in a choppy range, with the 50, the 100, and the 200-hour simple moving average (HSMA) are located within the 82.90-83.17 area, implying that in the near-term the AUD/JPY is range-bound.

That said, the AUD/JPY  in the near term would lie mostly in pure market sentiment unless the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), which has been more dovish than expected, changes its dovish posture towards a hawkish one. That would originate flows towards the Australian dollar without considering as much the market sentiment.

AUD/JPY Price Forecast: Technical outlook

The AUD/JPY has an upward bias, despite the ongoing correction, that has witnessed a test of the 50-day moving average (DMA), which was pierced on Wednesday but regained by AUD bulls on Thursday. At press time, the 50-DMA sits at 82.98, a level that would need to be reclaimed by AUD bulls.

The outcome of a daily close above 83.00 could pave the way for further upside. The first resistance for AUD/JPY traders to overcome would be the November 19 swing high at 83.35, followed by the November 16 cycle high at 84.15.

On the other hand, failure to reclaim 83.00 would open the door towards the 100-DMA at 81.85, though it would find some hurdles on the way down, like the November 19 swing low at 82.15.


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