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- Fed: Tapering by year-end, tightening a long way away – TDS
Fed: Tapering by year-end, tightening a long way away – TDS
FXStreet reports that strategists at TD Securities discuss their current outlook as well as some key sources of risk and uncertainty.
“We don't expect the latest COVID-19 wave to have a major growth impact, but there will likely be some fallout. We expect fiscal stimulus to fade to the point of policy turning contractionary on a change basis in FY22, even with another fiscal package. We expect real GDP to slow from a still-very-strong 7% QoQ AR in the current quarter to 4% in Q4 and 2.5% on a Q4/Q4 basis in 2022.!
“We expect sharp slowing in inflation as base and reopening effects fade and the surge in used vehicle prices is partly reversed.”
“We expect enough ‘substantial further progress’ for Fed officials to announce the start of QE tapering before year-end. We forecast a formal tapering announcement in December 2021, with November also possible, but no rate hike until December 2023.”
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