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- USD/JPY likely to struggle to trend higher in near term - MUFG
USD/JPY likely to struggle to trend higher in near term - MUFG
eFXdata reports that analysts at MUFG Research see limited scope for USD/JPY to trend higher in the near term.
"The swing in July was certainly extreme and unlikely to be replicated but it does highlight one of the fundamental factors limiting the scope for the yen to depreciate on any kind of a sustained basis at levels over 110.00. At the lower bound with investors holding little confidence in the BoJ’s ability to lift inflation, real yields are likely to remain relatively attractive."
"Add to this a structurally stable current account surplus over 3% of GDP and a currency that on many metrics is about 10% undervalued, the prospect of USD/JPY trending higher from here looks limited. Yes, a rebound in US nominal yields can play a role in lifting USD/JPY as correlations show but the correlations weaken at higher levels over 110.00 and over a medium term timeframe, valuation, external positions and real yields suggest downside risks."
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