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- Dallas Fed president Kaplan: Fed's latest summary of economic projections reflects policymakers' reaction to dramatically improved economic outlook
Dallas Fed president Kaplan: Fed's latest summary of economic projections reflects policymakers' reaction to dramatically improved economic outlook
- Says he expects unemployment rate to decline to about 4-4.5%
- Dallas Fed still expects GDP growth of about 6.5% in 2021
- We've seen more vaccines and fiscal spending than we had anticipated
- Accelerated vaccinations, substantial fiscal policy is leading to greater mobility
- Dallas Fed forecast is for headline inflation PCE to be 2.4% with risks to the upside
- Spending on energy transition is likely to be a persistent inflation boost
- Issue coming out of financial crisis was a lack of demand; the issue now is supply constraints
- We still haven't returned to as much in-person work as we may have by the fall
- Business travel still lags behind, demand for workers could firm further
- Some of the demand-supply imbalances in the labor market are structural, including retirements
- Wage issues could be more persistent
- It would be wise not to rely on the dollar remaining the world's reserve currency indefinitely
- In favor of taking the foot off the accelerator sooner rather than later
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