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- U.S. core inflation to cool in second half - NABE survey
U.S. core inflation to cool in second half - NABE survey
Bloomberg reports that according to a survey from the National Association of Business Economist, business economists are increasingly optimistic about the U.S. economy’s growth prospects in 2021 and most see core inflation pressures moderating by the end of the year.
A median estimate of economists calls for a 6.7% real growth rate in 2021, up from the 4.8% forecast in the March survey.
Respondents see the personal consumption expenditures price index, minus food and energy, cooling to 2.1% in the fourth quarter from a projected 2.6% in the April-June period.
The consumer price index will rise to 2.8% in the final three months of the year, on a year-over-year basis, then drop to 2.4% in the fourth quarter of 2022, the survey showed.
Some two-thirds of survey respondents anticipate U.S. employment to return to pre-pandemic levels by the end of this year or in 2022, which is sooner than what they estimated in prior surveys. The unemployment rate will likely average 5.6% this year and 4.3% next year, according to a median forecast of those surveyed.
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