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- Dollar keeps Citigroup, Morgan Stanley wary of emerging markets
Dollar keeps Citigroup, Morgan Stanley wary of emerging markets
Bloomberg reports that emerging-market investors reeling from last month’s losses head into the first full week of April bracing for more pain driven by higher U.S. Treasury yields and a stronger dollar.
Flows to equity funds fell to less than a third of the levels seen in February and bond funds ended the first quarter with more outflows, according to data compiled by EPFR Global.
Morgan Stanley is staying bearish on emerging-market currencies, saying the slow pace of vaccine rollouts in many developing economies is threatening to ensure growth in developing economies will lag behind the U.S. Meantime, Citigroup Inc. expects higher U.S. yields and a resilient dollar to put further pressure on the asset class in the coming months.
“This quarter can be big for the dollar and not necessarily amazing for emerging markets,” said Luis Costa, Citigroup’s London-based head of CEEMEA strategy. “We don’t believe the U.S. curve is pretty much done adjusting. Between now and June/July, we could see a further leg higher here in yields.”
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