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- US GDP to make up lost ground this year, employment to lag – Standard Chartered
US GDP to make up lost ground this year, employment to lag – Standard Chartered
FXStreet reports that economists at Standard Chartered raise their 2021 US GDP forecast to 5.5% (previously 2.1%) and 2022 to 4.0% (3.8%) as the economy has proven more resilient to COVID-19 restrictions in 2021 than in 2020.
“Surveys suggest the economy has been much more resilient to pandemic restrictions than in Q2-2020, in part thanks to the late December COVID-19 relief package. Meanwhile the US vaccination programme could cover 60-70% of the population by the end of Q2.”
“Our expectation that growth will accelerate from late spring is further supported by the prospect of another fiscal package – we expect it to total $1.2 trn.”
“We now forecast Q4-2021 GDP growth of 6.5% YoY (previously 3.5%), taking GDP back to its trend level, and now expect Q4-2022 GDP growth to be 2% YoY. This could allow some 8 M jobs to be created and a return to the pre-pandemic level of employment by late 2022, although still short of full employment.”
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