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- Morgan Stanley abandons weak dollar call on shift in U.S. rates
Morgan Stanley abandons weak dollar call on shift in U.S. rates
Bloomberg reports that Morgan Stanley strategists have dropped their expectations of near-term weakening in the dollar amid a regime shift in U.S. rates propelled partly by prospects for meaningful fiscal expansion.
“It’s no longer attractive to be positioned for a weaker dollar from here given the uncertainties around the fiscal policy outlook, the monetary policy outlook and the growth in inflation outlook,” Matthew Hornbach, global head of macro strategy, said.
Morgan Stanley, which Hornbach describes as an “out-of-consensus dollar bear” for much of the past nine months, has now exited short positions on the dollar versus the euro and Canadian dollar. Instead, the firm recommends shorting the British pound versus the Norwegian krone, and suggests pivoting toward being short the Swiss franc versus the loonie.
Two key factors are behind the revised call on the dollar. Democrats’ victory in the Georgia runoffs last week suggests as much as $1 trillion in additional Covid-19 relief may be coming as soon as this quarter, the strategists said. There’s also the possibility of discussions by the Federal Reserve about normalizing policy, which could begin as early as June.
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