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- BoC Preview: Yield curve control is a risk for the loonie – TDS
BoC Preview: Yield curve control is a risk for the loonie – TDS
FXStreet reports that economists at TD Securities look for the Bank of Canada (BoC) to keep rates unchanged while maintaining a cautious tone in the October policy statement.
“Hawkish (10%): Could have been worse. Economy has outperformed central scenario from July, large (2pp) upgrade to 2020 GDP, 2021 unchanged. A larger supply-side impact will pull forward closing of the output gap. Forward guidance and QE unchanged.”
“Base Case (60%): Not out of woods yet. Economy has outperformed the central scenario from July; a large (2pp) upgrade to 2020 GDP but 2021 downgraded. Statement flags more challenging recovery from here, fragile consumer and business sentiment. Forward guidance and QE unchanged.”
“Dovish (30%): Enter YCC. Strong initial recovery in the rearview, next phase will be more difficult with COVID-19 infections rising. Fiscal policy supporting growth but low inflation/excess supply suggest more needs to be done.”
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