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- US Elections: Biden leads nationally – Standard Chartered
US Elections: Biden leads nationally – Standard Chartered
FXStreet reports that the Senate is still projected to flip Democrat while the impact of record early voting is uncertain, per Standard Chartered.
“Biden’s lead in the average of polls has stabilised at 8ppt, one week before election day. This is a substantial lead, especially if we compare it to Hillary Clinton’s in 2016.”
“One of the most respected organisations – Project.FiveThirtyEight.com – says that out of 40,000 election scenario simulations, Biden wins the Electoral College in 87% of the outcomes. In fact, the range of possibilities suggests that Biden could win as many as 400 Electoral College votes. But again, the actual number of votes required to change that – just a few thousand, if allocated in key counties of key swing states – can dramatically alter the outcome, in a disproportionate manner.”
“Americans will also vote on 3 November for members of the House of Representatives (all seats) as well as about one-third of the Senate. Since the vote for the House is well correlated with popular vote intentions, it is widely expected that the Democrats will keep the House. For the Senate, projections of state-level polls have shown for weeks that the Democrats have a good chance to flip the Senate, with a projected tight 51-49 outcome”
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