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14.05.2020, 08:41

ECB Economic Bulletin: Survey indicators suggest a sharp contraction in economic growth and a profound deterioration in labour market conditions

  • The euro area is facing an economic contraction of a magnitude and speed that are unprecedented in peacetime.

  • Measures to contain the spread of the coronavirus (COVID-19) have largely halted economic activity in all the countries of the euro area and across the globe.

  • Euro area GDP could fall by between 5% and 12% this year, depending crucially on the duration of the containment measures and the success of policies to mitigate the economic consequences for businesses and workers.

  • As the containment measures are gradually lifted, these scenarios foresee a recovery in economic activity, although its speed and scale remain highly uncertain.

  • The variability depends on the duration of lockdown measures, success of policies

  • Headline inflation is likely to decline further in the coming months

  • An ample degree of monetary accommodation is necessary for the robust convergence of inflation to levels that are below, but close to, 2% over the medium-term

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