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- U.S. stocks don’t need to fall on economic damage - Goldman Sachs
U.S. stocks don’t need to fall on economic damage - Goldman Sachs
Bloomberg reports that according to analysis by Goldman Sachs Group Inc., U.S. stocks may be able to look through a dismal earnings season or two, and the deepest economic contraction in modern history.
That's based on historical analysis that suggests equities price in macroeconomic performance over a two-year horizon. As long as projections are -- as they indeed are now -- for the economy to rebound after the current and coming period of pain, then stocks don't need to fall, the Wall Street bank concluded.
"Investors usually discount at least the next two years of macroeconomic performance, suggesting markets may continue to look through bad news over the near term if it can reasonably be expected to reverse in the coming quarters," Zach Pandl, co-head of global FX and EM strategy, wrote in a research note.
Stocks have recovered globally over the past month as governments lay out plans to ease shutdowns to fight the Covid-19 outbreak. The S&P 500 is up 29% from its March 23 close, though remains 15% off the February record high.
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