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- BofA says S&P 500 to hit fresh lows if volatility pattern holds
BofA says S&P 500 to hit fresh lows if volatility pattern holds
Bloomberg reports that according to Bank of America Corp., U.S. stocks are likely to see new lows if VIX patterns from yesteryear hold sway.
The current bear-market rally most closely resembles what occurred in 2008, and suggests there's limited further upside before a turn that drags the S&P 500 to fresh lows, strategists led by Benjamin Bowler wrote in a note. They drew that conclusion by measuring from the peak of volatility in the three most recent major sell-offs and comparing those with the present one.
Volatility markets are "underpricing the risk of a secondary market shock," they wrote.
If the S&P 500, which is up about 15% since the March 16 peak in the VIX, continues to trade in line with the 2008-09 bear-market rally, it would top out around 2,960 as the economic impact of this crisis get priced in, according to the report.
In the three previous big sell-offs -- 1987, 2002 and 2008 -- it took between one and a half to four months after the VIX peaks for equity market to bottom, BofA noted. During that time, the S&P 500 rose anywhere from 15% to 25% before falling again, they said.
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