ADB cuts developing Asia's growth outlook sharply on Covid-19 impact

In the Asian Development Outlook, released Friday, the Asian Development Bank (ADB) said that regional economic growth in developing Asia will decline sharply in 2020 due to the effects of the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, before recovering in 2021.

The report forecasts regional growth of 2.2% in 2020, a downward revision of 3.3 percentage points relative to the 5.5% ADB had forecast in September 2019. Growth is expected to rebound to 6.2% in 2021, assuming that the outbreak ends and activity normalizes. Excluding the newly industrialized economies of Hong Kong, China; the Republic of Korea; Singapore; and Taipei,China, developing Asia is forecast to grow 2.4% this year, compared to 5.7% in 2019, before rebounding to 6.7% next year.

"The evolution of the global pandemic-and thus the outlook for the global and regional economy-is highly uncertain. Growth could turn out lower, and the recovery slower, than we are currently forecasting. For this reason, strong and coordinated efforts are needed to contain the COVID-19 pandemic and minimize its economic impact, especially on the most vulnerable," said ADB Chief Economist Yasuyuki Sawada.

In the People's Republic of China (PRC), a sharp contraction in industry, services, retail sales, and investment in the first quarter due to the COVID-19 outbreak will pull growth down to 2.3% this year. Growth will rebound to an above normal 7.3% in 2021 before reverting back to normal growth.

Underpinning much of the weakness across Asia is a deteriorating external environment, with growth stagnating or contracting in the major industrial economies of the United States, Euro area, and Japan. Some commodity and oil exporters, such as those in Central Asia, will be hit by a collapse in commodity prices. Brent oil prices are expected to average $35 per barrel this year, down from $64 in 2019.