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- EUR: ECB to have limited FX impact - ING
EUR: ECB to have limited FX impact - ING
Francesco Pesole, an FX Strategist at ING, notes they think that the ECB meeting should have limited implications for EUR/USD.
"The two key points in the Bank’s message should be that data suggests a pick-up in inflation, and the manufacturing cycle has bottomed out. However, most of the focus is likely to fall on the launch of the strategy review, specifically in relation to the duration (we think until year-end), and who will participate in the process (EU Parliament, academic groups). Our economists think the review will eventually lead to a new definition of price stability of “around 2%” from "below, but close to, 2%". The meeting will also give markets another chance to assess ECB President Christine Lagarde’s communication style; her first months have been characterised by very balanced rhetoric. All in all, we see little scope for any surprises and the options market is mirroring this view, with event vol breakevens at 26 pips in EUR/USD, sizably lower than the historical average for an ECB meeting (although the number is also reflecting the general low volatility environment)."
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