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- Canada's employment likely to rise by 25k in December – TDS
Canada's employment likely to rise by 25k in December – TDS
Analysts at TD Securities are expecting the Canadian labour market to recover a portion of the 71k jobs lost in November, with employment forecast to rise by 25k in December.
- "While outsized pullbacks in LFS employment are typically followed by mean-reversion, there are few instances where Canadian employment has fallen by this magnitude outside of the financial crisis.
- The goods-producing sector should provide the main engine behind the recovery after shedding 67.5k jobs over the last two months, including 2.9% of all manufacturing jobs, and some stabilization within auto production along with positive NAFTA developments should help bolster sentiment in the industry.
- Services should see more modest job growth, and we do not anticipate any impact from CN workers returning from strike. A partial rebound in employment alongside a modest pickup in labour force growth should allow the unemployment rate to edge lower to 5.7%, while wage growth should slip to a still-robust 4.0% y/y from 4.4% in November."
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