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- Global recession risks are declining – Danske Bank
Global recession risks are declining – Danske Bank
Analysts at Danske Bank think that following significant headwinds over the summer, the global economy is showing tentative signs of stabilization.
- "This stabilisation comes on the back of sizeable monetary policy stimulus in both advanced and emerging markets in addition to an expansionary fiscal policy in China.
- Despite the stabilisation and expectations of a modest recovery in the global manufacturing sector in early 2020, we have revised down our outlook for the global economy amid continued trade uncertainty and waning stimulus measures.
- However, the risk of a global recession over the next year or so has declined to 25% (from 30%) on the back of an improving chance of a trade deal and the receding risk of a no-deal Brexit, on the back of the UK election.
- The outcome of the US-China trade talks is a key risk to the global economy in 2020. The discussions could go in either direction, prompting considerable uncertainty for our global forecasts."
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