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- RUB seen to be negatively affected if the U.S. falls into recession – Rabobank
RUB seen to be negatively affected if the U.S. falls into recession – Rabobank
Piotr Matys, the senior FX strategist at Rabobank, suggests that supported by oil prices, attractive carry trade (despite the CBR cutting rates by 125bps to 6.25%) and optimism about the phase one trade deal the ruble was on track to end 2019 as the best performing EM currency, but it may change in 2020.
- "As a commodity currency, the RUB will be negatively affected if the US falls into recession. Trade truce is unlikely to last and China will lose more momentum.
- Domestic factors will not be supportive as GDP growth will remain sluggish. Strong bipartisan anti-Russian sentiment in the US Congress could culminate in severe economic sanctions being imposed for meddling in the 2016 presidential elections."
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