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- Canada: GDP likely to decline by 0.1% in October – TDS
Canada: GDP likely to decline by 0.1% in October – TDS
Canada's industry-level GDP is forecast to decline by 0.1% MoM in October owing to a contraction in the goods-producing sector and a large drag from retail and wholesale trade, according to analysts at TD Securities.
"Preliminary crude output edged lower which will offset the rebound on the East Coast after a series of oil spills weighed on offshore production through Q3. Elsewhere, the UAW strike will weigh on motor vehicle production and contribution to a pullback in manufacturing activity during the month. Weaker utilities output will provide another headwind, owing to unseasonably warm weather during the month. Services should fare slightly better, although a sharp pullback in both retail and wholesale trade volumes will weigh. Professional services, a significant driver of recent strength in the services sector, saw a large (+2.1%) increase in hours worked for October which should provide a tailwind. A 0.1% decline for industry-level GDP is hardly a desirable start to Q4 but should leave quarterly growth tracking near 1%, slightly below the latest BoC projections."
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