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Trading the ECB – TDS
Analysts at TD Securities provide their view on the upcoming ECB monetary policy decision on Thursday and expect no change in interest rates.
- “Despite expected growth downgrades, we expect Ms. Lagarde to focus more on building consensus than on further easing, with the hope that the policy currently in place will be enough.
- We look for the EUR to react only mildly as policy continuity should be the main takeaway. Lagarde's style and tone is a wild card. Barring an early misstep there, the slight downgrades we see to growth may be offset upgrades to next year's inflation forecast. This should keep EURUSD confined to familiar ranges overall.
- With markets only pricing in 3-4bps in rates in 2020, we continue to favour receiving the front-end of the EUR curve expressed via Rec 2y1y EUR OIS.”
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