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- UK: Most important election coming up – TDS
UK: Most important election coming up – TDS
James Rossiter , head of global macro strategy at TD Securities, points out that the UK's Thursday election has been called the "most important election for a generation" as it could decide the path for Brexit over 2020 and beyond.
“Our base case is for the Conservatives to retain power with an enhanced majority of at least 36 votes, enabling them to pass legislation by a comfortable margin – including the Brexit Withdrawal Agreement – without having to depend on support from other parties or rebellious factions within the Conservatives.
FX: With GBP up sharply in recent weeks, we think our base case is fully priced - or very close to it. Confirmation of a solid Tory majority may see a knee-jerk move higher in cable, but is vulnerable to "sell the fact" profit taking and a shakeout of stale positions once the elections result is known. As such, we would not chase cable higher in the immediate aftermath even if sterling may be a buy on dips further out.”
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