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- USD: Base-case for USD to continue grinding slowly higher throughout 2020 - Barclays
USD: Base-case for USD to continue grinding slowly higher throughout 2020 - Barclays
Barclays Research discusses the USD outlook and adopts a structural bullish bias through 2020.
"The USD continues to grind slowly higher throughout 2020 in our forecasts. Despite moderate overvaluation, the USD retains – now and for the foreseeable future – a significant growth and returns advantage over peers, particularly on a risk-adjusted basis. Solid household and corporate balance sheets, greater relative momentum in activity, and meaningful monetary stimulus put the US in a better position heading into 2020 than nearly any other economy. With the exception of the yen, which benefits from diversification demand, the USD steadily but slowly outpaces other G10 currencies, advantaged by relative growth and carry. Higher-carry EM currencies outperform the USD early in 2020 amid improved risk tolerance, but ultimately fade without sustained support from growth,' Barclays adds.
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