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- Fed's Governor Brainard: 'Certainly' more tariffs in December would be a realization of downside risks
Fed's Governor Brainard: 'Certainly' more tariffs in December would be a realization of downside risks
- Trade uncertainty has been major factor weighing on economy in past year; cities business investment
- We've taken out insurance on trade but we still hear from business contacts saying they're waiting on clarity
- 0.4% tracking forecasts for GDP are quite a bit lower than consensus
- U.S. consumer has proven to be more resilient
- Most of the businesses we talk to that are consumer-facing continue to be quite upbeat
- We see some special factors weighing now that will begin to unwind in Q1
- I see economy growing slightly above trend in the next year
- I see inflation moving up to 2% and a bit above
- The slowdown in trade is a concern and a question mark but expect consumer and domestic growth to be solid for next year or year-and-a-half
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