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- BoE expected to leave the policy rate unchanged – Rabobank
BoE expected to leave the policy rate unchanged – Rabobank
Analysts at Rabobank are expecting the Bank of England (BoE) to leave the policy rate unchanged at 0.75% on Thursday 7 November.
- “This is also the consensus view and GBP OIS implies virtually no chance of a move in either direction at this week’s meeting.
- Whilst the OIS market is –on balance– still looking for a rate cut in the first half of 2020, the implied probabilities have closely tracked those of a no-deal Brexit.
- The immediate threat of a no-deal Brexit has been averted, but the uncertainty prevails. The UK is heading for a Christmas election, and even Johnson’s Brexit-deal leaves open a wide range of future possible trading relationships, including no trade agreement at all.
- Business investment has been in the doldrums for almost two years, while cracks have also started to become visible in the labour market. There is a good chance that sustained weakness on this front tilts the balance within the MPC. We now expect two rate cuts in 2020.”
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