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- EUR: No change at this week's ECB but balance of risks tilting to the downside - Nomura
EUR: No change at this week's ECB but balance of risks tilting to the downside - Nomura
Nomura Research discusses its expectations for the ECB policy meeting on Thursday.
"After eight years, 125bp cuts in the deposit facility rate, 150bp cuts in the main refinancing rate, 200bp cuts in the marginal lending facility rate, €2.6trn of assets bought via the Asset Purchase Programme (APP), three TLTRO programmes and tiering, Mario Draghi will hold his last meeting as ECB President on 24 October. Following the announcement of a hefty package of measures in September we do not expect any major announcements to be made at October’s meeting. It will also be important to monitor any comments from the ECB on the economic outlook and the risks of a euro area recession. We think the Bank will attribute a low probability to a recession, but will also highlight that the slowdown is likely to persist for longer than expected. We think the ECB will preserve its language on the balance of risks and confirm that they are tilted to the downside," Nomura adds.
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