The yuan will continue trading above 7-per-dollar even if the United States and China manage to ink a partial deal, expert say.
The Chinese currency, also known as the renminbi, has eased in recent months as trade tensions between Washington and Beijing intensified.
“The yuan will be stuck in a narrow range until we know for certain that Phase 1 of the trade deal is signed,” Stuart Oakley, global head of flow foreign exchange at Nomura, told CNBC.
“I’d estimate that range to be 0.50% either side of 7.0750 up until 16th Nov — with a slight bias to the downside,” he said, referring to next month’s Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation meeting which will be attended by U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping. The currency pair will likely head toward 7.00 if the two sides are able to sign an agreement in Chile, he added.
For the Chinese currency to strengthen to a level below 7-yuan-per-dollar again, the market will need to see signs that “the elimination of existing tariffs is being seriously discussed,” according to Oakley.
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