Market news
18.10.2019, 09:40

China: After 6% GDP growth in 3Q, we raise our 4Q forecast – ING

China's economy grew at the target rate of 6% in the third quarter, and despite uncertainty over the trade war, we are raising our forecast for fourth-quarter growth, Iris Pang – Economist Greater China at ING – wrote in a note.

"The main growth driver was still infrastructure projects. These projects have moved from the investment stage to the production stage. We expect infrastructure projects to continue to be the central pillar of growth in the fourth quarter. There is another CNY1 trillion yuan from the local government special bond quota, borrowed from next year, to be used until the end of 2019. These bonds are the source of financing for infrastructure projects. As such, both investment and industrial production will continue to rely on infrastructure. This will mark even bigger differences between private and public sector growth. The private sector will continue to suffer from the scaling down of factory activity due to the US tariffs. This will add even more uncertainty in terms of job security and salary growth which, in turn, will put pressure on consumption, even if substantial public sector growth acts to counter these negative pressures. The good news is that we expect 5G infrastructure, production and services to start to make a visible contribution to the economy from the fourth quarter. Although it is still uncertain how much 5G can help China's exports, domestic usage of 5G alone should offer good support to the economy. We are raising our forecast for 4Q19 GDP growth from 5.8% to 6.0%. As such, our GDP growth forecast for the whole of 2019 will be 6.15%."

© 2000-2021. All rights reserved.

This site is managed by Teletrade D.J. Limited 20599 IBC 2012 (First Floor, First St. Vincent Bank Ltd Building, James Street, Kingstown, St. Vincent and the Grenadines).

The information on this website is for informational purposes only and does not constitute any investment advice.

AML Website Summary

Risk Disclosure

Making transactions on financial markets with marginal financial instruments opens up wide possibilities and allows investors who are willing to take risks to earn high profits, carrying a potentially high risk of losses at the same time. Therefore you should responsibly approach the issue of choosing the appropriate investment strategy, taking the available resources into account, before starting trading.

Privacy Policy

Use of the information: full or partial use of materials from this website must always be referenced to TeleTrade as the source of information. Use of the materials on the Internet must be accompanied by a hyperlink to teletrade.org. Automatic import of materials and information from this website is prohibited.

Please contact our PR department if you have any questions or need assistance at pr@teletrade.global.

Feedback
Live Chat E-mail
Up
Choose your language / location