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16.10.2019, 11:22

UK: Deal or no deal? – Danske Bank

Danske Bank's analysts note that unlike Theresa May, UK’s Prime Minister Boris Johnson wants both the hard-core Brexiteers from the European Research Group (ERG) group and the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) on board before signing a deal with the EU.

  • “Remember the EU can always call an extraordinary EU summit if necessary , so negotiations are likely to continue, even if the EU summit on Thursday-Friday does not ratify a deal.
  • Even if Johnson reaches an agreement with the EU, the big uncertainty is whether he has support at home.
  • The head of the ERG group Steve Baker said the Conservative MPs should 'trust the PM ' after he met with Johnson yesterday. However, The Sun reveals that the ERG is split with some members stating they will reject Johnson's deal .
  • The DUP's votes are still crucial but it said 'gaps remain ' after the leaders met with Johnson last night. The DUP continues to reject a border between Great Britain and Northern Ireland in the Irish Sea. The question is whether Johnson's pledge to give Northern Ireland money from London, EU and Dublin may persuade it.
  • In our view, Pro-Brexit Labour MPs will probably still have reservations about voting in favour of a deal, as Johnson's version of Brexit is harder than Theresa May's. Pro-Brexit Labour MPs want safeguards on workers' rights and environmental and consumer standards. Labour MPs voting for Johnson's deal may be expelled from the party and get their whip withdrawn.”

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