The fall in U.S. equity volatility to a three-month low is being taken as a positive sign for stocks by market watchers, rather than one of complacency.
The Cboe Volatility Index slid a fifth straight day Tuesday to 13.54, the lowest since July 29. In the three times this year Wall Street’s so-called fear gauge dropped below 14 after spending a few weeks above it, shares rallied further twice, according to Sundial Capital Research Inc. founder Jason Goepfert.
“Historically, it has been more of a positive than a negative,” he wrote about the VIX’s move. “It’s not so low that it has proven to be a sign of complacency.”
Looking back further, among about 30 instances since 1990 when the VIX declined below 14 for the first time in more than three weeks, only one of the signals preceded a loss over the next six to 12 months, he said.
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