- Analytics
- News and Tools
- Market News
- RBNZ likely to leave the OCR at 1% – TD Securities
RBNZ likely to leave the OCR at 1% – TD Securities
Ned Rumpeltin, the European head of FX strategy at TD Securities, expects the RBNZ policymakers to keep the OCR at 1% at tomorrow's meeting.
- “After the RBNZ's surprise 50bps rate cut last month, we note Q2 GDP printed in line with the Bank's expectations. At the same time, the NZD TWI now stands more than 4% below its Aug MPS projections. With this in mind, we think the Bank can afford to 'wait' and 'watch' developments - at least for now. That said, we think the Bank's 2020 midyear GDP forecasts for ~3%/yr growth appear ambitious. And with the global outlook remaining cloudy, the RBNZ is likely to reaffirm downside risks to its forecasts.
- Accordingly, we retain our call for the RBNZ to cut the cash rate to 0.75% in Nov. Against this backdrop, our base case sees NZD remaining on the defensive generally. We note, however, the daily RSI for AUDNZD has started to trend lower after reaching "overbought" levels earlier this month. This could limit upside potential unless Orr delivers another significant dovish surprise this week. Heading into the decision, last Friday's intraday high (1.0840) is the key pivot to the topside ahead of significant resistance in the 1.0875/1.0900 zone. Looking lower, a break below 1.0730 could target a move toward 1.0630.”
© 2000-2024. All rights reserved.
This site is managed by Teletrade D.J. LLC 2351 LLC 2022 (Euro House, Richmond Hill Road, Kingstown, VC0100, St. Vincent and the Grenadines).
The information on this website is for informational purposes only and does not constitute any investment advice.
The company does not serve or provide services to customers who are residents of the US, Canada, Iran, The Democratic People's Republic of Korea, Yemen and FATF blacklisted countries.
Making transactions on financial markets with marginal financial instruments opens up wide possibilities and allows investors who are willing to take risks to earn high profits, carrying a potentially high risk of losses at the same time. Therefore you should responsibly approach the issue of choosing the appropriate investment strategy, taking the available resources into account, before starting trading.
Use of the information: full or partial use of materials from this website must always be referenced to TeleTrade as the source of information. Use of the materials on the Internet must be accompanied by a hyperlink to teletrade.org. Automatic import of materials and information from this website is prohibited.
Please contact our PR department if you have any questions or need assistance at pr@teletrade.global.
Bank transfers
