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24.09.2019, 11:17

Canada's household debt is a headwind for consumption – TD Securities

Robert Both, the macro strategist at TD Securities, notes that Canada's household balance sheets for 2019Q2 showed slight progress in the deleveraging process.

  • “Canadian households still owe $1.77 for every dollar of income and spend 14.9% of disposable income on debt payments, which represents a significant headwind to future consumption growth.
  • The deleveraging process will take time and leave debt-service ratios elevated over the projection horizon. We estimate that every 1% rise in the debt-service-ratio coincides with a 0.1-0.2pp drag on consumption over the following year.
  • Complicating matters is an already low savings rate. Further declines can provide a slight boost to consumption, but should households prioritize saving to guard against future rate hikes it would result in a more sluggish pace of spending.”

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