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- New Zealand’s growth slowing – TD Securities
New Zealand’s growth slowing – TD Securities
TD Securities analysts note that New Zealand’s Q2 GDP came in as per their and the RBNZ’s August MPS expectations at 0.5% q-o-q vs. market's estimate of +0.4% q-o-q, placing annual growth at 2.1%, the slowest rate of growth since Q4 2013.
- “In terms of breakdown, the bounce in services we anticipated materialized, +0.7% in Q2 from +0.3% in Q1, with 8 of 11 industries showing growth offsetting weakness in manufacturing and construction in Q2.
- Given GDP was in line with the RBNZ’s forecasts, the fact that the Bank over-delivered even its own Aug MPS forecasts in cutting 50bps last month and the NZD is the worst performing G10 currency since the Aug MPS date (-2.8%), there is no compelling reason for the RBNZ to cut next week. That said we do expect the Bank to deliver one more cut in Nov this year.”
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