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- Oil won’t hurt stocks until it hits $80 - JP Morgan’s stock guru
Oil won’t hurt stocks until it hits $80 - JP Morgan’s stock guru
J.P. Morgan’s chief quant says oil prices won’t hurt stock prices until they hit the $80 to $85 per barrel range.
Marko Kolanovic, global head of macro quantitative and derivatives strategy, said when oil prices are stable, oil correlates positively with the S&P 500, but when there are large price increases, the correlation weakens and becomes negative.
In a note, Kolanovic said higher oil prices can hurt consumer spending activity, but there are also positives including higher energy sector profits, reduced worries about high-yield energy debt, and improved employment in the industry.
Kolanovic, who sees a positive stock market this year, said rising geopolitical risk could also be a factor that pushes China and the U.S. to a trade agreement. He also sees both oil and natural gas prices moving higher, and that should drive energy stocks higher, accelerating a trend into value stocks.
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