UK unemployment rate unexpectedly fell, pay growth hits 4% for first time since 2008

According to the report from Office for National Statistics, the UK employment rate was estimated at 76.1%; this is the joint-highest on record since comparable records began in 1971, and higher than a year earlier (75.5%).

The UK unemployment rate was estimated at 3.8%; this is lower than a year earlier (4.0%) and unchanged on the quarter. Unemployment rate has not been lower since October to December 1974. The estimated UK unemployment rate for men was 4.0%, relatively unchanged from a year earlier. The estimated UK unemployment rate for women was 3.6%, the joint-lowest since comparable records began in 1971 and 0.4 percentage points lower than a year earlier (4.0%)

The UK economic inactivity rate was estimated at 20.8%; this is lower than a year earlier (21.2%) and unchanged on the quarter.

Estimated annual growth in average weekly earnings for employees in Great Britain increased to 4.0% for total pay (including bonuses), and fell to 3.8% for regular pay (excluding bonuses).

In real terms (after adjusting for inflation), annual growth in total pay is estimated to be 2.1% and annual growth in regular pay is estimated to be 1.9%.

Pay growth is watched closely by the Bank of England to gauge future inflation pressures, and the latest increase was stronger than all forecasts in a Reuters poll of economists.

"Once adjusted for inflation, they have now gone above 2% for the first time in nearly four years," ONS statistician David Freeman said.