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- GBP strength expected to be short-lived - ING
GBP strength expected to be short-lived - ING
Petr Krpata, the cChief EMEA FX and IR strategist at ING, notes the pound has benefited from the mix of (a) the UK Parliament legislating against no deal Brexit by the 31 Oct deadline and (b) stretched short positioning.
- "Still with early elections looming (it now seems just a question of timing – i.e. before or after the October deadline), we expect GBP strength to be short-lived and the pound to soon re-start a weakening trend given the election uncertainty and non-negligible risk of a no-deal Brexit should the Conservative party under PM Boris Johnson win a Parliamentary majority. Indeed, recall the GBP price action earlier in the year, when GBP strengthened first on the hopes of the Article 50 extension (as is happening now) but eventually depreciated meaningfully as UK politics became even more fragmented and the risk of a no-deal Brexit rose. We look for a similar roadmap this time around."
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