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- ECB monetary policy meeting accounts: It is likely economic slowdown to be more protracted than previously anticipated
ECB monetary policy meeting accounts: It is likely economic slowdown to be more protracted than previously anticipated
- Survey data have indicated a slowdown in global activity in the second quarter of 2019, particularly in manufacturing
- Global trade has remained subdued on the back of a weakening of both global investment and durable goods consumption growth, as well as ongoing trade tensions
- Since the June monetary policy meeting, the euro exchange rate has depreciated slightly, both in bilateral terms against the US dollar and in nominal effective terms
- Incoming information since the June meeting points to subdued growth in the second and third quarters of the year and indicates that risks to the outlook remained tilted to the downside
- Business surveys since mid-June suggest an ongoing slowdown in output growth, with the gap between weak manufacturing and generally stronger services activity widening somewhat further
- The trade outlook has remained surrounded by uncertainty and there is no clear sign of stabilisation
- The financial conditions have eased since the June meeting, largely on account of market expectations of further monetary policy easing
- A mechanical update of the short-term HICP outlook suggests a somewhat lower path
- Survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations in the euro area had declined
- There is now an increased likelihood that the economic slowdown or “soft patch” that has emerged last year would be more protracted than had previously been anticipated
- Available “soft” indicators at present point to slower growth in the third quarter of 2019, raising more general doubts regarding the expected recovery in the second half of the year
- A policy package – such as the combination of rate cuts and asset purchases – more effective than a sequence of selective actions
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