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- Norges Bank still thinking about a rate hike in September – Nordea
Norges Bank still thinking about a rate hike in September – Nordea
Erik Johannes Bruce, an analyst at Nordea Markets, suggests the weak NOK argues for Norges Bank to signal a rate hike in September despite increased international uncertainty.
- “Norges Bank’s in-between meeting in August will be more interesting than usual. We will not receive any new rate path and a change in interest rates is out of the question. However, we will receive a statement where the Executive Board will present new information since the last meeting in June and give their assessment, which could have a strong market impact.
- Given the drop in actual and expected rates abroad, the market has nearly lost all faith that Norges Banks will hike further.
- Given Norges Bank’s normal reaction function it is hard not to conclude that the weaker NOK more than counteracts downside news and increased international uncertainty. We, therefore, believe Norges Bank still wants to send a message that rates will increase further. We also think Norges Bank will indicate that a hike in September is the most likely outcome, and the bank has some choices in how to communicate this.”
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