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- PBoC likely to cut rates in september - Barclays
PBoC likely to cut rates in september - Barclays
Barclays Research discusses the outlook for the PBoC policy expectations.
"We think domestic considerations will continue to dominate China’s monetary policy decision making. We do not think the PBoC will automatically follow Fed cuts. A review of the 2015-19 Fed-PBoC movements shows that the PBoC followed the Fed in four of the five US hikes that occurred during China’s 2016-2018 deleveraging campaign. However, it has been easing since April 2018, when the US and Chinese economies diverged before fine-tuning policies to address emerging risks this March. Overall, our base case for gauging the monetary policy outlook expects visible downward pressures on growth, elevated food inflation in the short term (but less of an issue in Q4), a more flexible CNY exchange rate, moderate increase in leverage (debt/GDP) and a cooling housing market. We think the PBoC could lower policy rates in September," Barclays notes.
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