UK: Little time now to stop no-deal Brexit - MUFG

Fritz Louw, currency analyst at MUFG Bank, suggests that the prospect of a lull in Brexit-related GBP selling given parliament is in recess and hence nothing significant is likely to materialise in the coming weeks.

“The G7 Leaders’ summit between 24th -26th August being the possible exception. But reading through the details of the Fixed-Term Parliament Act, the timeframe for key decision making after the summer recess when parliament commences on 3rd September is tiny. If you assume the latest an election could be held is 29th October, the Fixed-Term Parliament Act stipulates that parliament would be dissolved at the beginning of the 25th working day before polling day. Working that back takes you to Wednesday 25th September. Then you have to incorporate the 14 calendar-day period for parliament needs to form another government after the passing of a government no-confidence motion, which takes you to Wednesday 11th September – just eight days after parliament returns from summer recess. It is increasingly unrealistic to view there being enough time for a general election to form a new government that would seek an extension to Article 50. This is especially so given there is some scope for the proroguing of parliament that the Fixed-Term Parliament Act does not restrict.”