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- What to expect from the July ECB meeting? - ABN AMRO
What to expect from the July ECB meeting? - ABN AMRO
“At the July Governing Council meeting, we expect the ECB to signal that a monetary easing package is becoming an increasingly likely prospect. It will very likely change its forward guidance on interest rates from the current expectation that ‘the key ECB interest rates (will) remain at their present levels at least through…’ to ‘the key ECB interest rates (will) remain at their present levels or lower at least through. This would signal that a cut in policy rates is likely at the next Governing Council meeting in September. There is also the possibility that the Council will signal the increasing likelihood of a re-start of QE by adding a line to its forward guidance on its asset purchase programme. For instance, it could say that the ECB would ‘re-start net asset purchases if necessary to ensure sustained convergence of inflation to levels that are below, but close to, 2% over the medium term’. The current guidance refers only to re-investments. There is a possibility of a cut in policy rates already at this week’s meeting.” - said ABN AMRO.
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