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- Eurozone: Flash PMI’s and ECB in focus next week - Westpac
Eurozone: Flash PMI’s and ECB in focus next week - Westpac
Tim Riddell, analyst at Westpac, suggests that given sparse data releases over the next week, focus will concentrate on flash PMI’s on 24th and the ECB’s pre-summer break meeting on 25th.
“The weakness in Tuesday’s ZEW surveys, notably the failure of the expectations components to lift from recent lows, will heighten concerns that EZ’s manufacturing PMI might remain at, or even slip deeper into, recent contraction levels (June was 47.6). Draghi re-ignited the ECB’s “whatever ever it takes” stance initiated in 2012 and although markets do not expect changes in policy on 25th, weak PMI’s would raise their conviction that ECB will increase forward guidance by outlining intentions to move deeper into NIRP or re-open a looser APP. Despite media speculation that Italy’s coalition may falter and result in early elections, the BTP-Bund risk barometer has been narrowing. Consequently, EUR/USD remains at risk of redefining the lows within its broader 1.11-1.16 range.”
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