"We now expect the ECB to change its forward guidance on 25 July and follow up with two rate cuts of 10 bps each in September and December, and to introduce tiering...The hurdle facing a new QE program now seems much lower than just fours weeks ago, but we still do not consider QE a done deal just yet. We think QE will come if the Eurozone's growth and inflation outlook worsen, if downside risks related to trade policy and (geo-)political uncertainty materialise, or if the Fed eases policy by more than we currently anticipate." - UBS economists wrote in a note to their clients.
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