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- What to expect from May Nonfarm Payrolls report? - Westpac
What to expect from May Nonfarm Payrolls report? - Westpac
“Nonfarm payrolls surprised to the upside in Apr as 263k jobs were created. The Apr gain left the 3-month average at 169k. Come May, we look for a gain in line with this average at 170k. Said outcome would be consistent with employment growth ahead of population growth. Having declined from 3.8% to 3.6% in Apr, we expect the unemployment rate to stabilise in May. The risk is that an uptick in participation results in the unemployment rate edging back up to 3.7%. Having trended higher over a number of years, prime-aged participation has turned down of late. This uptrend is however likely to return in time, given employment's continuing strength. Available slack continues to limit wage gains. A 0.3% gain is expected in May.”
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