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- Dallas Fed president Kaplan: Too soon to make judgement on rate cut because of trade tensions
Dallas Fed president Kaplan: Too soon to make judgement on rate cut because of trade tensions
- U.S. has a very tight labor force
- Trade tensions have heightened
- Trade relationship with Mexico supports US jobs
- Trade tensions may have a chilling effect on capital expenditures
- Watching trade situation very carefully
- Downside risks right now is to business confidence and capital expenditures but could start to affect hiring and therefore household spending
- Trade with Mexico overwhelmingly in interest of US. Allows US companies to be more globally competitive
- Trade with Mexico a very big deal because trade with that country involves intermediate goods
- Global growth is decelerating
- Slower global growth will spill over into US growth
- U.S. won't be immune to global growth slowdown
- corporate debt burden could amplify economic weakness
- Severity of climate events may start to impact economic performance if they become more frequent
- Fed needs to be open to learning about just how tight the labor market can become before inflation pressures become apparent
- Disruption to jobs in US today primarily driven by technology; blaming it on globalization potentially leads to poor policy decisions
- He sees Fed policy in the neighborhood of neutral right now
- He expects to and year with about 2% inflation, labor market to tighten further
- Watching credit spreads, not the stock market
- Too soon to make judgement on rate cut because of trade tensions, but is concerned that downside risks have increased
- He does think yield curve inversion is significant but needs to see that it has some size and some duration
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