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- U.S. housing market's fundamentals remain good - NBF
U.S. housing market's fundamentals remain good - NBF
Krishen Rangasamy, analyst at National Bank Financial, notes that the Case-Shiller National Home Price Index has risen more than 50% after hitting a trough in early 2012.
- The last time we saw such a run up in U.S. resale home prices was just before the 2006 housing crash. Does that mean the U.S. housing market is due for an imminent correction? Probably not.
- Fundamentals remain good as evidenced by low mortgage rates, improving household formation and a strong economy. Unlike excesses observed before the 2006 crash, house price inflation is not out of line with income growth.
- A hot labour market is supporting household incomes while tight mortgage standards are preventing runaway prices. Indeed, while back in 2006 less than 25% of mortgage originations went to highest-rated borrowers (credit scores 760+), these days this share is above 55%.
- The high quality of loans and solid economy explain why mortgage delinquencies are at decade lows.
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