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- China's leading indicators still point to improvement - Danske Bank
China's leading indicators still point to improvement - Danske Bank
Danske Bank analysts note that although the Chinese PMIs fell back in April but are still clearly off the lows and they continue to look for a moderate economic recovery in 2019.
Leading indicators still point to improvement:
- Lower yields point to a lift to home sales. Construction is robust due to low inventories.
- Commodity prices point to moderate recovery.
- Credit impulse is improving.
- PMI exports have rebounded.
- We look for a US-China deal in late May or early June to ease the trade war uncertainty further. We see a 50-50 chance of a further cut in the Reserve Requirement Ratio. We expect more targeted lending and stimulus towards consumer durables.
- We expect USD/CNY to grind lower towards 6.60 in 12 months on economic recovery and a trade deal.
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