Market news
30.04.2019, 10:40

Calls for Eurozone recession were certainly premature - ING

Analysts at ING note that, with the economic cycle already in a late stage, the fact the Eurozone's GDP flash estimate shows a decent 0.4% growth rate in the first quarter is probably as good as it gets. 

  • Paraphrasing Mark Twain who said reports of his death were greatly exaggerated, we can say that calls for a eurozone recession were certainly premature. Declining unemployment and gradually rising wages are supporting household consumption, while easy financing conditions remain in place. At the same time, the recovery is getting old and no one should expect from a greybeard that he will continue to run at the pace he could achieve in his youth. And indeed, the elderly are also more vulnerable to shocks. While there are still a number of risks (think of trade tensions, higher oil prices and the Brexit uncertainty) the improving international picture is likely to support eurozone exports in the coming months. In a number of eurozone countries, fiscal policy is also somewhat looser which is likely to underpin household consumption. In that regard, GDP growth should hover around 0.3% in the remainder of the year. Not great, but probably the best we can expect in the current stage of the cycle.
  • Today’s figures probably haven’t made the European Central Bank any wiser. The economy remains solid enough not to need extra stimulus. But at the same time not much has to go wrong to bring GDP growth to a standstill. In that regard, wait-and-see remains the most likely ECB monetary policy stance. More news in June, when the conditions for the first TLTRO are likely to be announced.

© 2000-2024. All rights reserved.

This site is managed by Teletrade D.J. LLC 2351 LLC 2022 (Euro House, Richmond Hill Road, Kingstown, VC0100, St. Vincent and the Grenadines).

The information on this website is for informational purposes only and does not constitute any investment advice.

The company does not serve or provide services to customers who are residents of the US, Canada, Iran, The Democratic People's Republic of Korea, Yemen and FATF blacklisted countries.

AML Website Summary

Risk Disclosure

Making transactions on financial markets with marginal financial instruments opens up wide possibilities and allows investors who are willing to take risks to earn high profits, carrying a potentially high risk of losses at the same time. Therefore you should responsibly approach the issue of choosing the appropriate investment strategy, taking the available resources into account, before starting trading.

Privacy Policy

Use of the information: full or partial use of materials from this website must always be referenced to TeleTrade as the source of information. Use of the materials on the Internet must be accompanied by a hyperlink to teletrade.org. Automatic import of materials and information from this website is prohibited.

Please contact our PR department if you have any questions or need assistance at pr@teletrade.global.

Bank
transfers
Feedback
Live Chat E-mail
Up
Choose your language / location